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Eugene Earnshaw's avatar

The main problem with this piece is that it misrepresents what naturalism and atheism are, and therefore misevaluates their probabilities are.

Neither atheism nor naturalism are in and of themselves committed to any particular thesis about the origin of the universe or any of its properties except, respectively ‘Whatever it was, it wasn’t divine’ and ‘whatever it was, it wasn’t magic or spirit’. Neither offers an explanation of the universe.

Now obviously it is better to have a true explanation than no explanation. But it is better to have no explanation than a bad one. Saying that the theist explanation of the universe’s origins is better than the atheist one strawmans the atheist because the atheist doesn’t have or need one: the atheist is committed only to the thesis that the theist explanation is incorrect.

In other words, the relevant question is really just: given all our relevant evidence, is the theist explanation of existence more likely true than false? And the discussion here does not really answer that very well, because it only considers the relative plausibility of rival explanations of existence, which is not the correct question.

If we are evaluating the plausibility of the theist explanation being true vs. being false, evidence that theism is false based on grounds that have nothing to do with the existence of the universe is relevant, since they affect the prior probability of God’s existence. So better hope you’ve solved the problem of evil! But more broadly, I don’t think it’s an an argument that can be won (although it can be lost), because there is no principled way of establishing the probabilities you would need in order to make it strong.

Vikram V.'s avatar

I like writing down my thoughts in argumentative format as I read your articles. I certainly don't expect a reply!

> The methodology people often employ, according to which evidence for God must come in the form of advanced predictions rather than explaining past evidence would rule out much of our knowledge. It would rule out almost all historical inquiry which virtually never proceeds by making predictions in advance. No one predicted, in advance, the evidence confirming the existence of Julius Caesar.

This is not true. If you have a Theory that Julius Caesar exists, you should be able to predict things based on that theory. For example, you would find a home that belonged to Julius Caesar and lots of people mentioning him. In contrast, if Caesar did not exist, then one would predict that no home would be found.

A testable prediction for God would predict future evidence which would distinguish God existing from God not existing. For example, if God existing entailed the existence of an undiscovered "House of God" which was not known to exist, and which would only exist if God existed, then that would be a testable prediction.

> Finally, such a method is clearly unworkable in the case of theism. If from the beginning of the world, the sky had spelled out “made by God,” that would provide significant evidence for the existence of God, even though it wouldn’t be an advanced prediction.

Doubtful. The sky might already spell "Made By God"... we just wouldn't know it. Additionally, you're sneakily smuggling in unrelated intuitions here. The sky reading "Made by God" is pretty convincing because it would support a God that directly and obviously intervenes in the material world, so one might expect further clear interventions. Of course, you admit that your theory of God can be adapted to account for literally any configuration of the world, which means it doesn't produce any testable predictions.

> Imagine a firing squad of 100 people all shoot their guns at you, but their guns all jam. It’s true that had they not jammed, you wouldn’t be around to observe it. Nonetheless, that they jammed is evidence that, for example, someone is conspiring to protect you, or someone paid off the firing squad.

Don't you believe in immortality independent of God? Seems like you would have to acknowledge you exist in any event. So the evidence update you get here is not "I exist", but "I survived the firing squad", which has nothing to do with your existence.

> From the fact that you exist, you get evidence your parents didn’t use effective contraception in the sex act that conceived you.

This is incorrect. We get evidence for this from the fact that we exist as humans who reproduce in a way that is mitigated by contraception. There's no need to update on your own existence.

Also, I'm not sure what "updating on your own existence" even means for someone who believes that it is metaphysically necessary for all possible minds to exist.

> prior probability of theism

My comment on that article stands.

> This argument, that theism explains why there’s something rather than nothing, comes in the form of various cosmological arguments—most notably the contingency argument.

The contingency argument doesn't do this. Reading your post and the summaries, it seems like all contingency does is say that if something exists, it's dependent on God. Which is all well and good, but it doesn't explain why God exists instead of literally nothing. It doesn't even try.

> It starts with the idea that everything has an explanation.

What's the explanation for this? It being necessary or convenient isn't an explanation. Are you positing this as brute fact, without an explanation?

> Nothing limited, whether in size or shape, can be fundamental, for the limit would need to be explained, but there’s nothing that could explain it (there’s nothing beyond this necessary foundation to limit it).

This can just be inverted. Something limited can be fundamental because the lack of limits would need to be explained, but there's nothing that could explain it.

Also... you then provide a bunch of explanations for why God is necessary. If your contention is that God is necessary because it needs no explanation, providing explanations seems to contradict that. Why are your explanations privileged?

> While the theist can explain laws in terms of the will of God, the atheist Humean must posit that the particles simply dance for no reason.

You're just kicking the "why" down the road. If I asked "Why does God make the particles dance?", you would just invent some whacky reason why God really needs particles to dance a certain way. If I asked you why God had those wacky reasons, you would simply assert that this is one of those facts that requires no further explanation. But at that point, why can't I just do the same with the natural law?

> Well, it’s quite mysterious that the laws apply to As—why don’t they apply to Bs or Cs or Ds or any of the other infinite physical structures.

Why does God make them apply only to As?

> Why do bosons have the power to interact with fermions rather than X’s

Why does God give Bosons the power to interact only with fermions? (I don't think this is even true? Doesn't gravity impact all energy fields?).

> It’s quite thoroughly surprising that the fundamental things have the powers to interact with other things that happen to exist, rather than one of the infinitely many nonexistent things.

What? What does it even mean to interact with things that don't exist? That's a nonsense statement. Even if you find some way to give it coherence, I could just say "maybe they do interact with nonexistent things! We'll just never know, because those non-existent things don't exist!".

> Section recap: Theism posits either zero explained fundamental things (if the contingency argument works) or one unexplained thing. This thing is very simple—just a single perfect being, a being of unlimited goodness. In contrast, naturalism must posit as brute:

No, you're just randomly packing a bunch of unrelated properties into one "thing" in order to contrive an explanation for the physical world. You have to arbitrarily posit that God is good, you have to arbitrarily posit that there are zero limits on God, you have to arbitrarily posit that all the properties of "goodness" are inconsistent with reality as we experience it (i.e. why we are not being wireheaded). Packaging things like this is just wordplay, you're not actually reducing complexity. The fact that you declare these things "irreducible" doesn't help either. Firstly, there's no reason why they can't be reduced. That's an arbitrary limit!!!!! Secondly, I can totally reduce "good" into a set of distinct propositions by creating an "unsetly large" (I don't think such a thing exists, but you do) catalogue of what would be good in every possible scenario. That's unsetly complex!!! Infinite evidence against theism!

> physical stuff exists there are laws the laws apply to the physical stuff that exists.

I can just do the same thing that you do and combine all these into only "one" thing. All physicalism has to posit is that there was a singularity of energy. Everything else, like laws and interactions are just inherent in the concept of that singularity of energy. I feel like I vaguely recall hearing that was how it worked in the Plank Epoch of the early universe, where "laws" were just descriptions of how that energy operated. Everything is just an inherent quality of energy.

> But the simplest laws are boring! The simplest laws just make particles move in a circle, or in a line, or in a triangle shape.

As established above, all laws are just irreducible components of an energy singularity, so they are always maximally simple. (I am applying your own arguments about the simplicity of "goodness" somehow being established because you declare Good to be not reducible).

Also, there's no reason why the laws have to be simple in the whacky sense you describe. Why not say that the movements of the energy field are governed by random laws that, once picked, are unchanging? That doesn't harm induction in any way and also doesn't disprove our universe, because you have no evidence that a random set of laws is inconsistent with our observed universe.

Continued below.

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