I recall seeing an article a year or so ago arguing that the “everything is bad and is getting worse” narrative is a direct effect of our minds holding onto good memories and letting go of bad ones. Unfortunately can’t find it now. But that seems right to me. Also, I can imagine how a bias for “the past was better” might be an evolutionary adaptation in a species that relies on passed-down, poorly understood knowledge. Cf. Joe Henrich’s work.
It's not just (or even primarily) our individual memories. Culture, for obvious reasons, gives us more replays of the great music of the past than the terrible.
People's revealed preferences turn out to be quite different. They go through long years of education expecting that there would be gainful employment. They take out mortgages with the expectation that their future earnings will pay it back, and the value of their house will appreciate. They educate their kids, provide them with food and shelter, and love, expecting a better future for them.
We should pay less attention to what they tell pollsters or to Pew Research. A lot more attention to what they actually do and plan for.
True words: "Everyone always thinks everything is terrible and getting worse."
I've often wondered if we humans are this way because it is more advantageous to think negatively as a method of remaining vigilant against uncertain risks than it is to be optimistic. The rat that stays close to the wall while moving about the world lives longer than the rat who ventures out into the open.
Surely “college will be harder than high school and middle school” is not the best example of being burdened with false pessimism about the future. For most people it’s true!
One of the biases in "Myth of the Rational Voter" is pessimism bias. Bryan Caplan shows that economists and voters differ on this measure in that economists think that the economy is getting better most of the time while voters don't.
Politicians therefore have an incentive to appeal to this and create bad policies so they can win elections. This is a form of government failure (aka political market failure or public choice failure).
Markets avoid this by giving people what they want regardless of what they believe about society. People don't have as good of an incentive to form good political beliefs as they do to buy good products because what you buy affects your life whereas how you vote doesn't (votes are statistically insignificant).
You should definitely read "Myth of the Rational Voter."
I was always warned that if I didn't start paying attention in class, taking notes, etc., eventually it would catch up with me and I'd do poorly. I don't think it's happened yet! Although perhaps I have become more focused in ways that are mostly invisible to me. Certainly this summer I have become extremely focused, although that has been, perhaps, mere luck.
I'm not a psychology guy, so I can't say for certain this is true, but it makes some sense to me that people would be biased toward pessimism. All else being equal, a caveman is better off being cautious than he is being optimistically wild. Suspect this is also partly the reason why smarter people are generally unhappier.
I recall seeing an article a year or so ago arguing that the “everything is bad and is getting worse” narrative is a direct effect of our minds holding onto good memories and letting go of bad ones. Unfortunately can’t find it now. But that seems right to me. Also, I can imagine how a bias for “the past was better” might be an evolutionary adaptation in a species that relies on passed-down, poorly understood knowledge. Cf. Joe Henrich’s work.
It's not just (or even primarily) our individual memories. Culture, for obvious reasons, gives us more replays of the great music of the past than the terrible.
People's revealed preferences turn out to be quite different. They go through long years of education expecting that there would be gainful employment. They take out mortgages with the expectation that their future earnings will pay it back, and the value of their house will appreciate. They educate their kids, provide them with food and shelter, and love, expecting a better future for them.
We should pay less attention to what they tell pollsters or to Pew Research. A lot more attention to what they actually do and plan for.
True words: "Everyone always thinks everything is terrible and getting worse."
I've often wondered if we humans are this way because it is more advantageous to think negatively as a method of remaining vigilant against uncertain risks than it is to be optimistic. The rat that stays close to the wall while moving about the world lives longer than the rat who ventures out into the open.
Surely “college will be harder than high school and middle school” is not the best example of being burdened with false pessimism about the future. For most people it’s true!
All you say here is true, but it is also true that nuclear war can return us to the Middle Age in less than 10 hours.
You know things are *really* bad when this shows up on your feed.
One of the biases in "Myth of the Rational Voter" is pessimism bias. Bryan Caplan shows that economists and voters differ on this measure in that economists think that the economy is getting better most of the time while voters don't.
Politicians therefore have an incentive to appeal to this and create bad policies so they can win elections. This is a form of government failure (aka political market failure or public choice failure).
Markets avoid this by giving people what they want regardless of what they believe about society. People don't have as good of an incentive to form good political beliefs as they do to buy good products because what you buy affects your life whereas how you vote doesn't (votes are statistically insignificant).
You should definitely read "Myth of the Rational Voter."
I was always warned that if I didn't start paying attention in class, taking notes, etc., eventually it would catch up with me and I'd do poorly. I don't think it's happened yet! Although perhaps I have become more focused in ways that are mostly invisible to me. Certainly this summer I have become extremely focused, although that has been, perhaps, mere luck.
I'm not a psychology guy, so I can't say for certain this is true, but it makes some sense to me that people would be biased toward pessimism. All else being equal, a caveman is better off being cautious than he is being optimistically wild. Suspect this is also partly the reason why smarter people are generally unhappier.
Don't tell Richard Crim.