I did throw up last night when North Carolina results came in. However this was because I ate a chicken wing too fast. I am deeply grateful that nobody caught this on camera and I would have to spend my lifetime being recognized as the guy from the "triggered lib THROWS UP from Trump victory!" TikTok video.
I think it's nice to focus on the positive things that could be done during this window of Republican control, before the pendulum inevitably swings back (perpetual MAGA rule seems low probability to me). What comes to mind? The potential for NEPA/permitting reform (!!), streamlining and improving procurement, breaking the hold of the defense primes on defense spending, getting rid of water fluorination (which is pretty sketchy), the potential for accelerated approval of nuclear energy, small modulator reactors, using local natural gas and pipelines (better for the environment and great for the American economy), getting the FAA off SpaceX's back, and scaling back affirmative action (which has gone too far). Maybe even IRB and FDA reform is in the cards, who knows!!!
Maybe because I’m not American but I also find all the catastrophic doomsdaying about Trump to be over the top. He was once president and if I remember correctly the world didn’t end and black people didn’t experience slavery part 2.
Because he was opposed at every level by career bureaucrats who refused to e.g investigate Hillary even after she was cleared of charges, refused to mobilize the army to shoot protestors in the leg, refused to withhold FEMA aid from California, refused to forge letters and send them out to states to confiscate votes and voting machines, refused to decertify legitimate electoral votes, etc. Now his VP says he won't certify an election where Trump loses, he'll implement his Schedule F executive order that allows him to fire bureaucrats, and he's purged any nonloyalists from his inner circle. He was mostly held back in his first term because he was a retard who didn't understand how government works, and while his understanding improved very little since then, he has more loyalists around him willing to break the law like Eastman and Giuliani did.
When I woke up this morning, I felt quite bad because my family in Cuba probably won't be coming to the States for a while because of the new restrictive policies that are coming. But your article helped me a lot. Thanks, brother.
We need to start getting some CNN style fact checks on widespread harmful misinformation suggesting that the USA will become unsafe for racial minorities, LGBTQ+ & women.
One positive aspect is that Trump appears to support deregulation in the aerospace, AI, and cryptocurrency sectors. However, AI risk could potentially pose challenges.
oddly strong Trump victory (vs. marginal EC only win) seems to me to reduce the chance of authoritarian Singapore-style measures against opposition. don’t know if I’m just coping.
There are people with good reason to expect worse overall life outcomes due to this election. It isn't everyone, but some these bad outcomes reflect extensions of the status quo, or core election promises, that aren't particularly unlikely.
If you're a woman with an ectopic pregnancy, you're much more likely to die in states with abortion bans.
If you're trans in a red state, judicial appointments are likely to ensure that you can continue to be denied housing, fired or murdered with a lesser penalty for being transgender.
If you're a child citizen born to undocumented immigrants, you're much more likely to be deported or forced into an encampment along with your family.
While I agree that overreacting to potential negative outcomes is unproductive, I think that catharsis and grief for a lost better life is a valuable part of coming to grips with how your life needs to change.
I'm trans, in Texas. In the last six months I lost the ability to obtain identification that matches my appearance, putting me at substantially higher risk of physical violence. Odessa TX also passed a bathroom bill that relies on it's citizens policing gender expression to punitively exclude trans people from extended forays in public life. In this climate I expect to see it extended across the state.
This election means that many of my close friends will flee, many will live in fear of physical violence and a few may self harm or resort to suicide. And those concerns will extend until an entire generation of judges passes, or trans acceptance becomes a majority opinion in every state.
This election lowered my expectations for the next 20 years of my life meaningfully. I didn't sleep last night and I sobbed. For the day after, I don't think I wasted my energy.
One counterargument I can see to the fourth point is that if we are indeed living in a "hinge of history" moment (as many thoughtful people believe we might be), then the administration in power during that time could have outsized effects on the long-term trajectory of the world.
Bad? You want to see worse? Come out to San Francisco where our Democrats, without any restraints and billions in tax revenue, have run our city straight into the ground. Who do you think elected Trump? Republicans? Or by a good share of alienated Democrats.
Well-reasoned, logical, with emotion removed from the argument. Unfortunately, this is one of the only such opinions I have seen.
I think your assessment of what a Trump presidency holds is pretty accurate. This contrasts greatly with the media and liberal opinion, which are caught somewhere between mass hysteria and scaremongering.
In terms of risks, the biggest is probably the tariffs. Though even here it's difficult to determine what he will actually implement. Last time round he had the opportunity to implement tariffs to his heart's desire, and even though he did implement new tariffs, these weren't as catastrophic as I feared, and pretty much kept in-place by the Biden administration. But also remember the tariffs are his card to getting the middle class and union vote. As upset as Dems are, the tariff card was one played by Dem politicians before Trump.
And as you touched upon, Democrats and Republicans balance each other out over the long term. Reps look to reduce regulations, red tape, lower taxes. Dems look to increase the safety net, improve regulations, increase taxes. Both are right about some things, and wrong about many things. But that's politics and democracy.
In terms of Trump's threat to Democracy, there is always a threat, but I think many Dems forget their actions and proposals, i.e. attacks on free speech and freedom of association, wanting to pack the bench to get their way, BLM rioters should not be charged, and using the judiciary to go after political rivals.
All of these also undermined Democracy before Trumps stunt on 6 Jan, and yet how often do you see these mentioned, or seen warnings that Harris will undermine Democracy if elected (some of the above are/were her proposals)?
I did throw up last night when North Carolina results came in. However this was because I ate a chicken wing too fast. I am deeply grateful that nobody caught this on camera and I would have to spend my lifetime being recognized as the guy from the "triggered lib THROWS UP from Trump victory!" TikTok video.
Actually, you know what, I deserve this for eating chicken. God works in mysterious ways.
I think it's nice to focus on the positive things that could be done during this window of Republican control, before the pendulum inevitably swings back (perpetual MAGA rule seems low probability to me). What comes to mind? The potential for NEPA/permitting reform (!!), streamlining and improving procurement, breaking the hold of the defense primes on defense spending, getting rid of water fluorination (which is pretty sketchy), the potential for accelerated approval of nuclear energy, small modulator reactors, using local natural gas and pipelines (better for the environment and great for the American economy), getting the FAA off SpaceX's back, and scaling back affirmative action (which has gone too far). Maybe even IRB and FDA reform is in the cards, who knows!!!
Maybe because I’m not American but I also find all the catastrophic doomsdaying about Trump to be over the top. He was once president and if I remember correctly the world didn’t end and black people didn’t experience slavery part 2.
Because he was opposed at every level by career bureaucrats who refused to e.g investigate Hillary even after she was cleared of charges, refused to mobilize the army to shoot protestors in the leg, refused to withhold FEMA aid from California, refused to forge letters and send them out to states to confiscate votes and voting machines, refused to decertify legitimate electoral votes, etc. Now his VP says he won't certify an election where Trump loses, he'll implement his Schedule F executive order that allows him to fire bureaucrats, and he's purged any nonloyalists from his inner circle. He was mostly held back in his first term because he was a retard who didn't understand how government works, and while his understanding improved very little since then, he has more loyalists around him willing to break the law like Eastman and Giuliani did.
Whatever happens, thanks for a positive and encouraging piece.
When I woke up this morning, I felt quite bad because my family in Cuba probably won't be coming to the States for a while because of the new restrictive policies that are coming. But your article helped me a lot. Thanks, brother.
We need to start getting some CNN style fact checks on widespread harmful misinformation suggesting that the USA will become unsafe for racial minorities, LGBTQ+ & women.
Prediction markets
One positive aspect is that Trump appears to support deregulation in the aerospace, AI, and cryptocurrency sectors. However, AI risk could potentially pose challenges.
oddly strong Trump victory (vs. marginal EC only win) seems to me to reduce the chance of authoritarian Singapore-style measures against opposition. don’t know if I’m just coping.
I agree, especially about the very stoic-pilled take in your first consideration. I think the main takeaway of these election results is going to be:
1. Don't discount the predictions markets!!!!
2. Things aren't as bad as emotional freakouts post election results indicate.
Thank you, I needed to hear this.
There are people with good reason to expect worse overall life outcomes due to this election. It isn't everyone, but some these bad outcomes reflect extensions of the status quo, or core election promises, that aren't particularly unlikely.
If you're a woman with an ectopic pregnancy, you're much more likely to die in states with abortion bans.
If you're trans in a red state, judicial appointments are likely to ensure that you can continue to be denied housing, fired or murdered with a lesser penalty for being transgender.
If you're a child citizen born to undocumented immigrants, you're much more likely to be deported or forced into an encampment along with your family.
While I agree that overreacting to potential negative outcomes is unproductive, I think that catharsis and grief for a lost better life is a valuable part of coming to grips with how your life needs to change.
I'm trans, in Texas. In the last six months I lost the ability to obtain identification that matches my appearance, putting me at substantially higher risk of physical violence. Odessa TX also passed a bathroom bill that relies on it's citizens policing gender expression to punitively exclude trans people from extended forays in public life. In this climate I expect to see it extended across the state.
This election means that many of my close friends will flee, many will live in fear of physical violence and a few may self harm or resort to suicide. And those concerns will extend until an entire generation of judges passes, or trans acceptance becomes a majority opinion in every state.
This election lowered my expectations for the next 20 years of my life meaningfully. I didn't sleep last night and I sobbed. For the day after, I don't think I wasted my energy.
One counterargument I can see to the fourth point is that if we are indeed living in a "hinge of history" moment (as many thoughtful people believe we might be), then the administration in power during that time could have outsized effects on the long-term trajectory of the world.
Bad? You want to see worse? Come out to San Francisco where our Democrats, without any restraints and billions in tax revenue, have run our city straight into the ground. Who do you think elected Trump? Republicans? Or by a good share of alienated Democrats.
Did you read Conrad Bastable's piece on this? Found it interesting to chew on. https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/escalation-theory-compliance-violence-and-overachievement-in-society
Thank you for that. Fascinating piece.
Is there sufficient evidence to support the claim that only Bush would have supported PEPFAR?
Try to put the best face on the implosion of The Democratic Party. Clintonism is officially dead.
Well-reasoned, logical, with emotion removed from the argument. Unfortunately, this is one of the only such opinions I have seen.
I think your assessment of what a Trump presidency holds is pretty accurate. This contrasts greatly with the media and liberal opinion, which are caught somewhere between mass hysteria and scaremongering.
In terms of risks, the biggest is probably the tariffs. Though even here it's difficult to determine what he will actually implement. Last time round he had the opportunity to implement tariffs to his heart's desire, and even though he did implement new tariffs, these weren't as catastrophic as I feared, and pretty much kept in-place by the Biden administration. But also remember the tariffs are his card to getting the middle class and union vote. As upset as Dems are, the tariff card was one played by Dem politicians before Trump.
And as you touched upon, Democrats and Republicans balance each other out over the long term. Reps look to reduce regulations, red tape, lower taxes. Dems look to increase the safety net, improve regulations, increase taxes. Both are right about some things, and wrong about many things. But that's politics and democracy.
In terms of Trump's threat to Democracy, there is always a threat, but I think many Dems forget their actions and proposals, i.e. attacks on free speech and freedom of association, wanting to pack the bench to get their way, BLM rioters should not be charged, and using the judiciary to go after political rivals.
All of these also undermined Democracy before Trumps stunt on 6 Jan, and yet how often do you see these mentioned, or seen warnings that Harris will undermine Democracy if elected (some of the above are/were her proposals)?