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Jonathan's avatar

This is a fun response. I think the point about theism assuming psychophysical harmony rather than explaining it is the key. PH is only a strong argument for God because we've already baked so much content into God to start (content like harmonious connection between God's intentions and the results of his actions).

That said, I have to be an evangelist for abandoning the term "intrinsic probability." There is no such thing. You won't find it in probability textbooks. You won't find it in formal epistemology textbooks. Probabilities aren't intrinsic (contra Draper/Swinburne)... and they're not logical (contra Carnap/Tooley)... see van Fraassen's "Laws and Symmetry" for a complete demolition of the idea.

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Dustin Crummett's avatar

Some quick points: I think this is mostly what someone trying to resist the argument should say. I am not committed specifically to the pure perfection explanation: there are a couple different ways of trying to explain why theism might not have a super low intrinsic probability, some of which we survey in the paper, and I think it's kind of intuitively obvious that it has a higher intrinsic probability than various other weird possibilities, however you explain that.

I also don't understand how the explanation at the end is supposed to work. I guess one of the upshots of the argument is that, for any set of behavioral dispositions, there are oodles more disharmonious laws that would produce them than harmonious laws. That should be true for the disposition to create universes, too.

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