Discussion about this post

User's avatar
The Ancient Geek's avatar

Moldbug is my idea of a stupid person's idea of a smart person.

Expand full comment
Andries's avatar

Philip Tetlock is required reading re the failings of talking heads appearing on the air or in print as experts. He has found ways to quantify their predictions and found that 'superforecasters' - often lay people with the right combination of humility, curiosity and constant (Bayesian? or quasi-Bayesian?) updating - routinely outperform them. His focus is on the prediction of events in international politics, but I suppose his findings would have pretty strong implications for other fields as well.

Expand full comment
25 more comments...

No posts