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Daniel Echlin's avatar

The flow of this argument is like:

1. Argue that extraordinary claims, in fact, do not require extraordinary evidence.

2. Make an extraordinary claim with, honestly, weak evidence. Stuff like -- each ant is a 1% human sufferer according to some heuristic some guy made up, and since suffering is aggregable (it clearly isn't), killing 100 ants is as bad as murder.

3. Just sort of parry counterarguments by saying "well yes it's surprising, isn't the world surprising."

There's actually intense circularity here. I actually reject the first step. I think that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Instead what you presented is an absurd conclusion on a lot of evidence that's debatable at best. Which matches my priors, that you can make absurd conclusions if you stop requiring extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims. So my mind is changed about nothing.

The real problem is I can't really tell the epistemic status here. Are you REALLY trying to convince me to become a supervillain and destroy the earth to bring reprieve to insect hell? Like at this moment is your evidence that good, that you'd like people to do something like that? Or is this a more hedged "I reached an absurd conclusion! I don't reject it out of hand but I'd like to explore if it's right."

At object level I think there's 2 major flaws just in the insect welfare analysis. I mean, I think the "meta" flaws are worse, but as I see it:

1. the 1% math is witchcraft. I don't believe the heuristic and it's certainly not aggregable as you suggest. In fact in your "shrimp" article you explicitly argue against such aggregability so.

2. there's no model of insect happiness. It just seems we're further along with studying pain and I don't support doomsday devices just because the science is proceeding at an uneven rate.

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In-Nate Ideas's avatar

Good article - I guess I can think of a few “moderate” positions that someone could defend:

1) insects matter but the total welfare of insects is so deeply uncertain that the signs mostly cancel out.

2) insects have barely acceptable levels of welfare but human lives are so much more valuable that it’s still a better thing when humans replace insects. Like maybe insect lives are positive but below the “critical range” whilst humans are above.

3) insect lives are good but you take some sort of person-affecting view of pop ethics where preventing good insects lives isn’t bad.

These seem like they’d lead to status quo indifference to affecting population sizes at least?

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