Biden Isn't Going To Drop Out

No shot!

Sorry for two articles in one day—this one is a bit time sensitive and it’s short, so I thought I’d publish it right after writing it. Also, later edit, the subtitle was written before the assassination attempt on Trump.

I have been saying since quite shortly after the debate that Biden will almost certainly not drop out—I hold that view with around 85% confidence (coincidentally, the same confidence that Maxim Lott described having in his article on the subject, though I held this view long before I read him saying it). I have now bet some money on this view, so I thought I’d explain why I think it.

First of all, as

Maxim Lott

notes in a similar article (reading his excellent piece inspired me to write this one), Biden has absolutely no incentive to drop out. He’s doing, in polls, less than 1% worse than Harris—Biden’s not going to give up a 30-ish percent chance of being president so that he can be replaced by someone with a 40-ish percent chance of being president. Biden’s not going to step aside so that someone up .7% in the polls relative to him will replace him.

Second, if Biden bows out now, that’s disastrous for his career. This would be accepting the narrative that he’s too cognitively weak to win and be president. It would be admitting that he tried to get reelected, humiliatingly got trounced in a debate with an insane narcissistic liar, and then gave up. Biden has much too much pride to be content guaranteeing his legacy is a mirror of Jimmy Carter’s.

Third, if Biden were going to drop out, he’d have done it by now! The time to drop out was shortly after the debate. The odds of Biden dropping out go down with each passing day. So the fact that he still hasn’t dropped out is strong evidence that he won’t. Right after the debate, I think one should have predicted he wouldn’t drop out, but now after weeks, there’s no way he drops out.

Fourth, when people are old and decrepit, they’re generally the last to know. I know of an old person who was almost blind and still insisted that he could drive. Biden is, therefore, likely to underestimate the scale of his age and decline. People said he was too old last time—Biden sees this time as no different.

Fifth, there will not be any organized conspiracy to get Biden to drop out. Coordinating a collective effort is too difficult and getting in Biden’s bad graces is costly for Democrats. While a few donors may pull funding, once it’s clear that the choice is between Biden and Trump, he’ll get them back.

Sixth, consider the base rates. Reagan had dementia and didn’t drop out. Wilson was a vegetable and didn’t drop out. Biden’s in far, far better shape than any of those guys, and they didn’t drop out. Presidents don’t drop out even when they’re severely mentally enfeebled—Biden’s comparatively mild decline won’t cause him to drop out.

Seventh, Biden knows that there’s no good replacement. Newsom is doing even worse than Biden in part because he’s a demon from hell. Harris is doing just slightly better, and given that she’s quite unlikeable, she’s likely to do worse over time. The only people who might do better are moderates like Whitmer and Pritzker—but they’re too much of unknown wild cards to be safe bets. Now, I’d like for the Democrats to pick one of them, but it’s hard to imagine either an organized effort to force Biden out for those guys or Biden recognizing his chances are worse than theirs. The Democratic leadership is slowly coming to realize that trying to knock out Biden is a bad idea because it will hurt his chances in the general.

Eight, dropping out now would be utterly humiliating for Biden. Biden has been talking, since the debate, about it being a fluke and how he was not going to drop out. If he drops out now, that would be revealed to all be a pack of lies, and Biden will be humiliated.

For these reasons, I’m at 85% odds that Biden stays in. While the betting markets are usually pretty good, I think here they’re way off.