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technosentience's avatar

Great article. I also hang out with rationalists sometimes, and I am too frustrated by their absurd overconfidence in the "LessWrong canon". One could write similar articles on various topics (like decision theory), but, honestly, this just makes me sad about the whole premise of trying to think better.

And it's not like the other group trying to think better, analytic philosophers, is faring well. Maybe the sad truth is that humans are really bad at philosophy, and there is just no reliable way to fix that.

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David Piepgrass's avatar

> Rationalists seem to have total confidence in physicalism about consciousness, despite the many objections to it. I like Rationalists a lot. They are much better at acquiring true beliefs than most normal people. But unfortunately, they are much worse at acquiring true beliefs than they think they are. This often results in absurd overconfidence in very tenuous views—views for which there are not decisive arguments on either side.

As a rationalist, this is a bit distressing to hear. Not because there's anything incorrect about what you've said, but because it *shouldn't* be correct. After this you describe a Yudkowsky who seems to have come up with a hypothesis via his internal intuition, and then failed to update his views according to available evidence. Yudkowsky's intuition is usually pretty good, but he himself wrote:

> The third virtue [of rationality] is lightness. Let the winds of evidence blow you about as though you are a leaf, with no direction of your own. Beware lest you fight a rearguard retreat against the evidence, grudgingly conceding each foot of ground only when forced, feeling cheated. Surrender to the truth as quickly as you can. Do this the instant you realize what you are resisting, the instant you can see from which quarter the winds of evidence are blowing against you. Be faithless to your cause and betray it to a stronger enemy. If you regard evidence as a constraint and seek to free yourself, you sell yourself into the chains of your whims. For you cannot make a true map of a city by sitting in your bedroom with your eyes shut and drawing lines upon paper according to impulse.

Interestingly I feel the same as you regarding qualia/consciousness with respect to Yudkowsky: I'm inclined toward moral realism, and Yudkowsky's view seems incorrect even just based on how humans work. If I stub my toe really hard, I believe I am experiencing qualia in that moment, but not that I'm experiencing "reflective self-awareness" in that moment. I don't understand how "reflective self-awareness" is supposed to create this qualia, such that without it there is no qualia. I similarly disagree with EY about the danger of AGI, where his reasoning that the very first AGI will probably kill us all seems to have skipped some logically necessary steps.

I don't see a problem with *rationalism* per se, because it seems to me that Yudkowsky laid out some very good principles. It seems to me that the main problem going on in rationalism is that some rationalists including Yudkowsky himself don't always seem to follow those principles. It may also be the case that there are some additional principles that are an important part of being rational, but which aren't included in Yudkowsky's Sequences, and we should expect this to be the case because reality is extremely complex relative to human mental capability, and therefore it would be surprising if any single person were the font of all truth. And indeed, my understanding of the twelfth and final virtue of rationality is that "there are some additional principles of rationality I haven't laid out here, and I myself don't know what they are, but they're important too".

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